6.21.2020

DOW Pullback June 22-26?

What Do The Candlesticks Know?






Maybe nothing.

The candlestick chart above is for the week of June15-19.

I know that according to the efficient markets hypothesis it is not possible to predict the market at a level that is better than random chance. That makes all indicators useless. You would have to have a crystal ball or a time machine...or be an insider. I am just playing with the concept of candlesticks in this post because I think it is interesting.

Some are calling the candlesticks for June 15-17 a Evening Doji Star and some are calling it an Abandoned Baby, both of which indicate future decline. There is a decent gap between the close for the 1st candlestick and the open for the doji star, but there is a slight overlap between the doji and the 3rd stick.  There is no strong selling pressure on the 3rd stick - another indication that although a decline may be coming it will not be dramatic.

June 18-19 shows a nice bearish engulfing, another signal of decline. 

Week of June 22-26 seems set for slight decline or sideways movement. 

It is also noteworthy that both of those dojis teased the 200 day SMA.

Update 6-22-2020


The prediction above did not fail. Before close there was indeed a weak pullback:


The DOW lost 204 points from Friday's close before recovering later in the day.

FED meth wins again. But the week is still young.

BLS employment data will be released on July 2, so there could be quite a bit of excitement next week. Will the BLS BS again or will the truth come out and make the DOW tank? The BLS issued the 13.3% unemployment figure in June "causing" the DOW to soar 3.5% in that Friday's trading session. The following Monday it went up another 1.7%. Over the following three sessions the DOW lost almost 10% as the market realized that the economy was not recovering as well as people had wished. 

Another interesting even for the week is what under other circumstances might have been called a golden cross:


Nothing can stop the 50 day SMA from crossing north of the 100 day SMA this week. The DOW would have to fall back to 19,000 for that to happen.

Update 7-3-2020


The 50 day SMA moved above the 100 day SMA last week replacing the 100 as the support level. It will take some doing to get the DOW to move below it.

Also the BLS did released another volley of blockbuster numbers on July 2 and, as predicted, the market is more skeptical than it was the last time around. The price of the DOW is flirting with the 200 day SMA and may begin to move lower again next week.

That is my novice opinion anyway.


Update 7-7-2020


I am going to level with you all. Since February I have made $$ in stocks and corporate bonds. This may seem like a good thing, but the truth is that I have been able to pull this off due to irrational patterns that are without any doubt created by the US government and the FED pumping cash into the system. President Obama added to the national debt an amount of money equivalent to every president that came before him since the creation of the United States. President Trump is on track to go even further. The fiat currency is fake. Any apparent recovery is a fraud. In my thinking this can mean only one thing. They know that the end is coming and that nothing matters.They are feathering their own nests with reserve notes and converting that $ into private islands and concrete bunkers in preparation for the day that the USA becomes Zimbabwe.

I strongly suggest that you all hope for the best, but prepare for the zombie apocalypse because odds favor TSHTF in the relatively near future. 

UPDATE 7-28-2020


The update from 6-22 showing the 50 day SMA moving above the 100 day SMA has turned out to be a classic buy signal. Question is "who is buying?" 



6.15.2020

Home Made Pancakes From Scratch

Pancakes From Scratch





In Pillsbury Pancake Warning I lamented the problems with Pillsbury Pancake mix.

Those sorrows have passed and will never return again thanks to our success with making them from scratch.

recipe:
  • 1.5 cup flour
  • 1.5 teaspoon baking soda
  • 1 tablespoon sugar
  • 1.25 cup milk
  • 1 egg
  • 3 tablespoon butter (melted)
  • 1 tablespoon vinegar
mix and cook:
  • Sift flour sugar baking soda together.
  • Whisk egg.
  • Form a well in the middle of the flour mixture and pour in the egg, milk and butter.
  • Mix with a spoon until smooth, but don't over mix. A few small lumps is ok.
  • Dollop mix onto an oiled pan and brown on both sides.

This recipe yields 6-7 pancakes like the ones pictured at the top of the article.

I find that this from scratch mix is superior to the box mixes in taste, texture and ease of preparation. The box pancakes always stick to the pan, but these  pancakes flipped in the pan with almost no sticking at all. The top of the mix pancakes is always gooey when you flip them and this is also not a problem with the scratch mix.

Maybe you are thinking, "vinegar in pancakes? gross!"

But it actually works. I substitute baking soda for baking powder and when you do that you also must add an acid to activate the soda. You cannot taste the vinegar in the finished product. 

Also keep in mind that when substituting baking soda for baking powder that the baking soda is about 4x as strong. So if a recipe calls for 1 tsp of baking powder that would require you to use only 1/4 tsp of baking soda. Then you would multiply the baking soda amount x 2 and that is how much vinegar you would use - in this case 1/4 tsp baking soda + 1/2 tsp vinegar. I always use more baking soda and vinegar than is required because I like the extra rise. 

Another plus with using baking soda is that it does not lose its potency like baking powder. Unless you bake a lot you will want to use sachets of baking powder because once you open a larger container it will go flat if not used soon after. This is not the case with baking soda and I have yet to find the upper limit on its ability to maintain its potency.

All of the sodium in this recipe is in the baking soda. There is about 1.3 grams of sodium in a teaspoon of baking soda, so that puts this recipe up around 2 grams of sodium. To lower the sodium you could back off to 1 teaspoon of baking soda and that would also require only 2 teaspoons of vinegar. 

FYI: the box mixes contain around 2 grams of sodium per box.

UPDATE


I have made this recipe a few more times and it never has been as easy and perfect as the first time (until now). The name brand flour that I had used initially has not been available so I had to use locally repackaged "cake flour." This flour is bulkier than the White King flour that I was used to so I have to keep adding more until I get a mix that seems to be the right viscosity. 

I have also found that in order to get maximum fluff it is best to add the vinegar right at the end after all other ingredients have been thoroughly mixed together. Jut pour it in and mix as needed.

6.04.2020

Stock Market Insanity?

Warning: IT IS SEPTEMBER 1929 RIGHT NOW...maybe

UPDATE 6-11-2020


Now we know why Trump's BLS (they need to drop the "L") released the bogus unemployment figure last Friday. They wanted to give the market a nudge upward so that all of the right people could exit on a high note.


************** end update



Are the markets insane? 

Some might say so, since they are shooting up despite historic social unrest and economic devastation.

But remember:
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” - John Maynad Keynes
On May 14 the DOW bounced off of the 50 day SMA for a final time and began its trek upward.

On May 27 the DOW crossed the 100  day SMA and after dithering for a day or two began to creep toward the 200 day SMA.

On June 3 the DOW touched the 200 day SMA.

This trend is a strong indicator of continued upward movement. But why is it happening now?

Reading the market news on several sites I see the same old refrain that the markets are ignoring the present distress because they are looking to future earnings.

This is BULL and I do not mean bull market.

The markets are looking to nothing.

What is making the markets go up is money from the FED. That accounts for probably 1/3 of the increase that we are seeing. The next third is those in the know who are confident that the FED will buoy them until the appointed time. The balance of the increase is the know nothings (myself and other novices) who might get lucky for a short spell.

Why is the "leftist" nooz ignoring this glaring FED fact? You would think that they would be all over it if they really wanted to go after Trump. Maybe they are not the enemies they want us to think they are. This is one of those "indicators" that the drama between Trump and the Democrats/media is fake. The media and Democrats are playing along with Trump, Powell and Mnunchin on the FED lifting the market. They are all making money off of this scam. They are all scamming We The People.

The only news outlet that gets it right is ZeroHedge
Yet while everyone is confused as to why the Fed can continue doing what it does (as Eric Peters said over the weekend, "Stocks Are Going Parabolic For All The Wrong Reasons: The Fed Made A Massive Mistake"), including professional investors, there do occasionally emerge nuggets of clear insight such as the following excerpt from Benjamin Bowler:"Perception can become reality, as investors heavily trained since the GFC to not fight the trend, feel forced to chase. A risk then is succumbing to reflexivity - that is inferring fundamentals from prices and believing markets are correctly forecasting a rosy future, despite much needing to go right for that to be the case... Hence, the key in our view is appreciating the more likely drivers of markets here (a feedback loop fueled by the perception of quant + promise of policy + the fear of missing out) rather than letting buoyant prices seed overconfidence that markets can truly shrug off the worst recession since the great depression (something not seen in 90yrs)."
I think that due to FED action the DOW may continue to go up in the short term and might even cross the 30k mark this year.

But it is just too dangerous for me to mess around with the wider markets.

This is a time for surgical analysis not shotgun thinking. 

And a final thought: all of the politicians that are allowing this bull shit stimulus and QE to go forward are guilty of theft of the highest order. When the markets crash it is into the pockets of these people and their masters that the money shall flee. And that is the future of your children that they will have stolen. You can steal only so much from the future before you run out of time to steal it from and the future is now. When we reach that point, and we will, there will be an upheaval such as has never been seen at any time in history. They will probably try to make it look like something other than what it is (a global economic crash caused by them). You better prepare for it. It will make the Great Depression look like a dimple.