6.04.2020

Stock Market Insanity?

Warning: IT IS SEPTEMBER 1929 RIGHT NOW...maybe

UPDATE 6-11-2020


Now we know why Trump's BLS (they need to drop the "L") released the bogus unemployment figure last Friday. They wanted to give the market a nudge upward so that all of the right people could exit on a high note.


************** end update



Are the markets insane? 

Some might say so, since they are shooting up despite historic social unrest and economic devastation.

But remember:
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” - John Maynad Keynes
On May 14 the DOW bounced off of the 50 day SMA for a final time and began its trek upward.

On May 27 the DOW crossed the 100  day SMA and after dithering for a day or two began to creep toward the 200 day SMA.

On June 3 the DOW touched the 200 day SMA.

This trend is a strong indicator of continued upward movement. But why is it happening now?

Reading the market news on several sites I see the same old refrain that the markets are ignoring the present distress because they are looking to future earnings.

This is BULL and I do not mean bull market.

The markets are looking to nothing.

What is making the markets go up is money from the FED. That accounts for probably 1/3 of the increase that we are seeing. The next third is those in the know who are confident that the FED will buoy them until the appointed time. The balance of the increase is the know nothings (myself and other novices) who might get lucky for a short spell.

Why is the "leftist" nooz ignoring this glaring FED fact? You would think that they would be all over it if they really wanted to go after Trump. Maybe they are not the enemies they want us to think they are. This is one of those "indicators" that the drama between Trump and the Democrats/media is fake. The media and Democrats are playing along with Trump, Powell and Mnunchin on the FED lifting the market. They are all making money off of this scam. They are all scamming We The People.

The only news outlet that gets it right is ZeroHedge
Yet while everyone is confused as to why the Fed can continue doing what it does (as Eric Peters said over the weekend, "Stocks Are Going Parabolic For All The Wrong Reasons: The Fed Made A Massive Mistake"), including professional investors, there do occasionally emerge nuggets of clear insight such as the following excerpt from Benjamin Bowler:"Perception can become reality, as investors heavily trained since the GFC to not fight the trend, feel forced to chase. A risk then is succumbing to reflexivity - that is inferring fundamentals from prices and believing markets are correctly forecasting a rosy future, despite much needing to go right for that to be the case... Hence, the key in our view is appreciating the more likely drivers of markets here (a feedback loop fueled by the perception of quant + promise of policy + the fear of missing out) rather than letting buoyant prices seed overconfidence that markets can truly shrug off the worst recession since the great depression (something not seen in 90yrs)."
I think that due to FED action the DOW may continue to go up in the short term and might even cross the 30k mark this year.

But it is just too dangerous for me to mess around with the wider markets.

This is a time for surgical analysis not shotgun thinking. 

And a final thought: all of the politicians that are allowing this bull shit stimulus and QE to go forward are guilty of theft of the highest order. When the markets crash it is into the pockets of these people and their masters that the money shall flee. And that is the future of your children that they will have stolen. You can steal only so much from the future before you run out of time to steal it from and the future is now. When we reach that point, and we will, there will be an upheaval such as has never been seen at any time in history. They will probably try to make it look like something other than what it is (a global economic crash caused by them). You better prepare for it. It will make the Great Depression look like a dimple.






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