11.28.2019

December Philippines Typhoon: Kammuri (Tisoy)

December Philippines Typhoon: Kammuri


Update December 3, 2019 10:00  





I just filmed the video above. We are about 200 miles south of Kammuri's center right now. The sea in the video is the Sulu Sea on the western side of the Philippines. Though you would not want to take a banca out on that water the waves are nowhere near as aggressive as when Haiyan/Yolanda came through (video in this post). Believe it or not there are people swimming in that stuff.

Update December 2, 2019 23:00   


U.S. Navy Joint Typhoon Warning Center 
(not subject to copyright)

The map above shows Kammuri just to the east of Legazpi at 02/12Z (8 P.M. Monday evening) with sustained winds of 115 knots making this a possible category 4 landfall.

Update December 2, 2019 10:00   


This information was just sent to me by the U.S. Embassy. I am sure that everyone is well apprised of the situation by now, but I will pass this on just the same:
Weather Alert - U.S. Embassy Manila (December 2, 2019)

Location: The Philippines
 

Event: Typhoon Kammuri (local name Tisoy) is forecast to make landfall over Catanduanes, Albay, or Sorsogon the evening of Monday, December 2 to early morning, Tuesday, December 3 and track westward. Residents of the affected storm path may experience strong winds and heavy rains, with possible flooding, landslides, and dangerous driving conditions, on Tuesday, December 3 through Wednesday, December 4. 

 Actions to Take:
  • Avoid travel to typhoon affected areas until the storm has departed the Philippines.
  • Monitor local media for updates.
  • Notify friends and family of your safety.
  • Review your personal security plans.
  • Have travel documents up to date and easily accessible.
  • Have evacuation plans that do not rely on U.S. government assistance.
  • Seek secure shelter in heavy wind and rain.
  • Monitor the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration website at http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

Update November 30, 2019 06:30   


U.S. Navy Joint Typhoon Warning Center 
(not subject to copyright)

The forecast strength for Kammuri continues to be downgraded. Kammuri is now projected to be a category 2 when it makes landfall and category 1 by the time it nears Manila.

The center of the storm is about 1200 miles east of the Philippines right now. We are located a couple of hundred miles south of Manila and for the past two days it has been drizzling here with on and off steady rains. The nights have been some of the coolest this year with temps around 20 Celsius, which is cold for us. We have only been as low as 19 or perhaps 18 Celsius a few times in ten years.

Hopefully this storm will only bring a little more rain to give the wells one last boost for the coming dry season. 

Update November 29, 2019 05:30   


U.S. Navy Joint Typhoon Warning Center 
(not subject to copyright)

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center now projects Typhoon Kammuri to obtain maximum sustained wind speeds of 90 knots (category 2) as it passes north of Metro Manila on 03/18Z (2 A.M. December 4).

This could be a major historic storm. Pray for Kammuri's dissipation.

*******************

Kammuri: Corona Borealis; The Northern Crown; The Crown of Ariadne; The bane of H.P. Lovecraft's Hypnos.

I have been watching Typhoon Kammuri for a few days. Until this morning the forecast had it meandering to the west of Guam and petering out while still more than a thousand miles east of the Philippines' coast.

This latest map shows Kammuri taking a hard left turn and heading directly west taking it right across central Philippines. 

The last forecast point shows Kammuri about 600 miles east of the coast on December 2, 10 A.M. local time. Sustained winds of 125 knots will place it squarely within category 4 territory and I expect it to strengthen yet more and possibly to category five as the forecast develops.



It seems late in the season to be talking about strong typhoons hitting the Philippines, but if you look at the historical record you will find that it is not uncommon at all.

Super Typhoon Haiyan November 8, 2013


Strong typhoons are not particularly rare even this late in the season. Haiyan was a November typhoon, striking Eastern Samar on November 8, 2013 at 4:40 A.M. with winds pegged as high as 235 MPH.

TYPHOON HAIYAN STORM PATH
Haiyan Storm Track November 2013
The graphic above shows that Haiyan struck the Philippines approximately 200 miles south of where Kammuri could make landfall if it continues on its projected path.

Typhoon Durian November 30, 2006


TYPHOON DURIAN STORM PATH
Durian Storm Track November 2006

Having weakened from category four status, Typhoon Durian struck Legaspi Philippines on November 30, 2006 as a category three typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 190 KPH. The eye of the storm made an almost direct strike over Mt. Mayon that had erupted only months before triggering catastrophic mud flows in the area.

Super Typhoon Bopha December 3, 2012


TYPHOON BOPHA STORM PATH
Super Typhoon Bopha Storm Track December 2012

Super Typhoon Bopha struck Southern Mindanao as a category five super typhoon on December 3, 2012 causing widespread and incredible damage. The storm weakened and became a tropical storm as it crossed over Palawan. On December 7 Bopha underwent an incredible transformation into a category four typhoon and threatened to strike the northernmost extremities of Luzon as it curved back toward the northeast. Fortunately, Bopha was ripped apart by wind shear over the South China Sea before it could do any more damage.

Don't Let Your Guard Down In November And December 


Late season storms are not only NOT rare, but they are in fact among the most powerful, most deadly and most costly storms of all. Of the top ten deadliest typhoons to ever strike the Philippines five of them hit in November or December:
 
Rank
Storm
Season
Fatalities
Month
1
"Haiphong"
1881
20,000
September
2
Haiyan
2013
6,300
November
3
Thelma
1991
5,101–8,000
November
4
Bopha
2012
1,901
Nov/Dec
5
"Angela"
1867
1,800
?
6
Winnie
2004
1,593
November
7
October 1897
1897
1,500
October
8
Ike
1984
1,363
Aug/Sep
9
Washi
2011
1,268
December
10
Trix
1952
995
October

Haiyan and Bopha are also ranked as the #1 and #2 costliest storms to ever strike the Philippines tallying $2.2 billion and $1.06 billion respectively.

1 comment:

Marvin said...

IT'S COLD!!!

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